[This is from a note I wrote to someone who is busy trading on Bitcoin and who was complaining that it’s been going down this last week. Jan]

Bitcoin is going to trend down for months. This won’t stop. I watched Max Keiser’s predictions last year. I have watched the trends.
Bitcoin has peaked and the path is directly down.

My own plans for Bitcoin has been to dump all crypto and to wait until it hits a bottom some time later this year.

Max Keiser said that it would peak in October stretching until maybe January 2022, and that’s it.

It’s market cycles are short.

It is probably heading into free fall. It’s a very bad time to be trading.

Ride it out. Let it be. It will collapse and when it’s hit the bottom, it will take quite a long time to slowly gain momentum.

You’re trading at the worst possible time you can. I did this with Gold in 2012-2013 and it burned me badly, so badly.

When something has peaked, you can’t make money on the way down except if you can trade on tools that go in the opposite direction.

With Gold you can do that nowadays. But there’s no mechanism to do the same for Bitcoin.

If I were you, I’d call it a day. You’ll just get burned because the trend is down.

Almost all the cryptos follow bitcoin.

I use these old charts because they work very well for me. Here is the status of bitcoin now:
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24BTCUSD,PWPADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]

It’s in a bearish downward triangle. It is about to break down even more.

It will be like this for months. I will let you know when I think it’s bottomed out, because I am interested in all crypto in the long term.

But I’m not going to waste my time on the downhill. It needs to fall until it bottoms out properly.

THEN WE WILL PICK UP HUGE BARGAINS. You’ll be buying big bargains, and we just wait for about 3 years, and we should have excellent results.

I’ve been through these types of cycles a number of times, and I’ve been caught up on that emotional high of greed when it is rocking and you think it will go higher.

I’ve been burned like this a number of times. This is the worst time to try. Just get out of it and do something else with your money.

Trading on a cycle that has reached it’s top and has broken down – is the nastiest thing you can do. You will burn on the waves downwards. You’ll think it’s turning when it’s not turning and each wave takes you a step lower.

I love those old P&F charts. Stock Brokers in the USA were using these things in the 1920s. They are wonderful and easy to grasp.

Here’s the one for etherium. It is following gold. It is also broken. They’re ALL F*CKED because the crypto market is driven by Bitcoin.
https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/pnf.php?c=%24ETHUSD,PWPADANRNO[PA][D][F1!3!1.0!!2!20]

Etherium is looking like it’s about to go up, but I wouldn’t waste my time. It is no better than Bitcoin.

Crypto has peaked. This is the end for the current 4 year cycle. But it falls very fast, and we’ll probably be picking up huge bargains towards the end of the year.

I pride myself that I’ve learned from some of my several burnings. I was way ahead of everyone, in 2016, by telling people that Gold had bottomed and that we’re in the start of the upward cycle.

With Gold the cycle is about 10 years. But crypto runs in a 4 year cycle, which is based also on the “halving”.

The psychology of the market is the problem. Once it has “broken” then everyone is jittery, and nothing can fix it.