[One thing that truly amazed me about this war, is how FEW of these super-high tech rocket/missile systems and high powered heavy artillery actually exist in the West! The Ukrainians did not receive many of these systems. At most, for example, say 10, when I had thought they would be getting approximately 100. The Russians have claimed to have destroyed one or two of these big artillery systems and also the same for the rocket/missile systems. But the majority of these systems seem to have survived. HIMARS are very advanced rocket/missile systems. It seems there is strong evidence that the Ukrainians used HIMARS against Russian ammunition dumps and it seems they really did some damage. The NASA fire system, which is very useful for detecting artillery fire, has shown a massive decrease in Russian artillery fire in Luhansk/Donbas areas between 15 July and 23 July. I had seen other reports from before 15 July where the NASA fire system was already reducing the Russian ability to use artillery. The Ukranians seem to be rushing around and launching quick strikes with the handful of heavy rocket systems they have and it seems to be slowing the Russians down. The war is definitely slowing down. The Russians are trying to raise extra "Volunteer battalions". They expect to have 16 such battalions ready by the end of July. The next interesting thing is that the Ukrainians may be ready to begin an offensive in the south around the Kherson Oblast. The war will slow down much more in the winter. But the thing the Ukrainians are very concerned about are the Russians using the Winter to dig in and build fortifications. That will make it really hard for the Ukrainians to regain territory next year. The Russians themselves are clearly lying about what they really wanted in the beginning. The Kharkiv Oblast is a chunk of Ukraine they are going to bring into the Russian Federation. It appears the Russians might just take all the Ukrainian territory they've grabbed and they might just make it a part of the Russian Federation. The ultimate goal seems to be to conquer all of Ukraine. On the whole the Ukrainians have done marvellously well. The Russians are moving slower and slower by the day. The Russians seem to be really worried about losing what they have conquered. So they'll probably try to make it a part of Russian territory. Then they also have the ability to use nuclear weapons in defense of it. But I would not worry too much about nuclear weapons and their use. I think the Russians would be extremely careful before escalating to that level. What I want to watch is the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson in the south. The Ukrainian offensives and victories also seem to be slowing down. Their defeat of the huge Russian columns around Kiev was their biggest victory, and I've been watching with tremendous interest for months now, their fighting around
Kharkiv. The Russians really dug in there. But that was the 2nd biggest Ukrainian victory. I'm not sure what exactly they can pull off in Kherson. Jan]

Here is a quote from today’s war report:
NASA FIRMS data from July 15-23 shows consistently fewer fires along the entire frontline in the Donbas, which strongly suggests that HIMARS are having a continued impact on Russian artillery capabilities.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-23